
Lottery winners: The myth and reality
Many people have the misconception that playing the lottery is a pointless pastime. If one considers the number of bets in the lottery, there is basically no chance of winning due to chance, but as a result of an average situation due to many draws. It is paradoxical because 50 percent of all the money raised goes into the pocket of the lottery organizer or the state revenues and the player is left with (let’s take a German mark as a unit of account) only 50 pfennig of each mark invested in the game. But at the same time, it does not mean that if we play for a long time, we will get back half of the invested money.
A simple calculation of the average loss refers to lotteries with fixed income: for 6 correctly guessed numbers the return is 3 million marks, 5 is 100 thousand and so on. Even ancient lotteries were organised, such as the Genoese “5 out of 90” lottery, which is still available in Italy today. One correctly guessed number gave the guesser a 14-fold increase in bets, 2 gave a 240-fold increase, 3 gave a 4800-fold increase. With 4 correctly guessed numbers the stake would gain 60 thousand times (bets on 5 correctly guessed numbers were not accepted – the reason was simple: no bookmaker would be able to pay for them).
In such lotteries, the average, or otherwise “expected” calculation of the winnings is calculated by multiplying the potential winnings by the corresponding probability. This expected winnings are compared with the bet, and you can then see how much you can lose if you play long enough. The modern lottery is based on a different algorithm. Firstly, the number of possible numbers is smaller here (45 in Switzerland and Austria and 49 in Germany), secondly the winnings on a combination of 3 4 5 6 correctly guessed numbers are not fixed. The winnings are based on the number of entrants and what other players will bet, which is a distinctive feature compared to other lotteries.
Take the popular German lottery ‘6 out of 49’. Prior to 1991, there were the following winning classes: 6 correctly guessed numbers, 5 plus an additional number, 5 correct, 4 and 3 correct numbers. It is a delusion for anyone who believes that by guessing all six numbers they can definitely go to the Bahamas. This misconception is reinforced by an incident that occurred on June 18, 1977. On that day, 31 000 marks were paid for six correctly guessed numbers. This was because the money raised for this lottery was divided by the number of people who won, which on that day was no less than 200!
On the one hand this is good and on the other it is bad. Bad for those who have bet on the same numbers as many other players. Good for those who were able to pick numbers that are rarely bet on. Those who bet like everyone else will have to share their winnings with everyone else. The one who bets differently gets the winnings for one. Because of that, such players are more likely to get all their money back later and get a hefty windfall on top of that. That is precisely the originality of the lottery-they are playing against the other players and not against chance and the lottery company! Undoubtedly, the company will retain its 50% share, but the rest will be divided among the players, and the smart player can successfully compete with those who bet “out of the blue”.
If the winnings are not fixed – they will depend on our betting behavior. The probability of winning is very small, less than the probability of being struck by lightning or being elected pontiff. The probability of getting six correctly guessed numbers plus an extra number is only one in 139 million. But other, more winnable but less money options are in our hands, and if we avoid the most obvious bets, we will not improve the probability of the coveted numbers coming out, but we will increase the value of the win itself if we are lucky.
If you do bet on popular sets of numbers, you are likely to lose even more than you put in. There is a tendency among players, for instance, to pick numbers that have come up in past lotteries or in one place or another. Incidentally, on that unfortunate day on June 18, the majority of winners bet on the same numbers that they had won in the previous week’s Dutch lottery. Birthday bets are also popular, so, say, the number 19 often reduces the total winnings. Often the obvious geometric shapes – say the numbers 1 and 6 or diagonals – are chosen. Geometric figures in particular should be avoided. If you win, you get the digits on the same diagonal, the unfortunate record of 200 wins at once will be immediately broken. The average gambler can be beaten by betting on really random numbers. You have to carefully cut out of paper all the numbers from 1 to 49 and randomly choose numbers from the pile. By the way, the famous company Faber, which specializes in giving advice to lottery players, operates in this way – it chooses yet unplayed combinations.
Such a strategy can only be successful, of course, if the majority of players follow the beaten path. If all players bet on random numbers, however, the odds are once again that your winnings will be 50 pfennig for every mark invested in the game.
Learn more interesting facts about lotteries at https://yesplay.bet/lucky-numbers/powerball_plus/results.
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