The UK National Lottery was launched in November 1994. The rapid growth in popularity of lotteries has led to more and more players becoming interested in the scientific side of lotteries – the theory of probability, how the numbers turn out, and so on. This article contains some of the most useful tips for beginners to playing the UK National Lottery.

Hot tips

In the early days of the lottery, it was not uncommon to see articles in newspapers touting the numbers that had recently been drawn, and trying to identify certain numbers as ‘due’ (they didn’t appear within a dozen draws), other numbers as ‘hot’ (occurring several times in a row). The question of how these inanimate rubber spheres spinning around a plastic tub must have been influenced by previous draws has never been considered. There are few such articles now; without specific use of these words it seems that it is generally assumed that the result of each draw is independent of the others, and that each of the possible combinations has the same chance each time.

The UK National Lottery has clear rules and a pre-determined amount of winnings, so each lottery player can use their own mathematics to determine their chances of winning. For the principal game, players must select six different numbers from the list {1,2,…,49}; in the lottery draw, six of these numbers are selected at random as ‘main’ numbers, and a seventh is also chosen (the Bonus number). Players receive a prize if their chosen numbers match the winning numbers in at least three of the cases. If a player manages to guess all six numbers, they are entitled to collect the jackpot. If another player also guesses all six numbers, the prize is shared between the winners. Usually the jackpot can be as big as £2 million, but sometimes it’s as much as ten times that!

Let’s do some calculations. Out of 49 numbers, there are six numbers that can be picked in 13,983,816 ways. As mentioned above, each of the numbers has an equal chance of being drawn during the lottery draw. In other words, a player’s chance of winning the jackpot is 1 in 14 million (if you round up the numbers)! This is a very slim chance, often no one gets the jackpot because no lottery player has ever guessed all six winning numbers.

True randomness

Unfortunately we don’t have many statistics about which numbers players prefer to pick. There are also some interesting features. For example, in one raffle, over 10 000 people chose numbers from 1 to 6. Many also prefer numbers that are a multiple of seven (7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42). Almost one time in six, no-one has won a jackpot share; and one time in five, one winner has scooped the entire jackpot pool. 

In general, it is possible to identify several types of combinations that are most attractive to players:

• Previous winning combinations, some from last year’s lottery;
• Winning combinations from lotteries of other countries;
• Combinations formed based on the arrangement of numbers in the lottery ticket (players highlight numbers in straight lines, zigzags and so on);
• Other systematic choices. For example, winning combinations from a previous lottery.

How to win more often?

Experts recommend paying less attention to the aforementioned systematic selections. Too many players share this kind of strategy, which means that even if they win, the prize amount will be small. 

The most profitable strategy is to apply a truly random method. For example, you can take a pack of cards, leave a number of cards in it equal to the number of numbers in the lottery. Then shuffle the deck a few times and select random cards. This way you can actually guess the winning combination. 

Another interesting fact is that many people choose numbers based on their birthdays or important dates of their relatives. That is, numbers between 1 and 31 are most often in their selection pool. Some experts recommend avoiding this selection. This way you can reduce the number of possible combinations to win to 1.5 million. This will not increase the odds of winning, but if the combination does win, the player will get a noticeably larger prize.

Be above average

Давайте подведем итоги всех расчетов. Благодаря статистике игроки в лотерею могут в полной мере осознать свои шансы на выигрыш, а теория вероятностей поможет им выбрать комбинацию, которая в случае выигрыша даст им как можно большую сумму. Whatever numbers you select, and whether or not you remain faithful to the same combination every draw, your chance of winning, and the average number of prizes, are not affected. The only “skill” is in selecting combinations that fewer other players use, leading to higher prizes – but we have little direct knowledge of other players’ choices. 

Learn more interesting tricks and information about lottery draws on uk49s !

What about smaller prizes?

Calculating the mathematical expectation is a great way of determining whether a bet is profitable. One mathematician has even used the mathematical expectation to repeatedly win the lottery jackpot.

This technique helps players determine the expected win or loss on a particular bet, with a positive mathematical expectation meaning that the offer is profitable. Take the UK National Lottery as an example: a negative mathematical expectation of -0.50 means that theoretically players lose 50 pence on every pound wagered, i.e. a bet with that mathematical expectation is unprofitable.

The formula for calculating the mathematical expectation of the lottery is quite simple. Multiply the probability of winning by the amount you can win from the bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you can lose:

(amount to win on bet x probability of winning) – (amount to lose on bet x probability of losing). There is, however, a certain peculiarity in calculating the mathematical expectation for lotteries. It is that if no jackpot is won in any draw, the jackpot amount is added to the jackpot for the next draw. So the jackpot amount accumulates and at some point it can reach a value where the expectation becomes positive.

Be above average

Let’s recap all the calculations. With statistics, lottery players can become fully aware of their chances of winning, while the theory of probability will help them choose the combination that will give them as much money as possible if they win. Whatever numbers you select, and whether or not you remain faithful to the same combination every draw, your chance of winning, and the average number of prizes, are not affected. The only “skill” is in selecting combinations that fewer other players use, leading to higher prizes – but we have little direct knowledge of other players’ choices. 

Learn more interesting tricks and information about lottery draws at https://yesplay.bet/lucky-numbers/uk_49s_lunch !